Economists Predict Decline in Energy Prices by 2025 Amid Surplus Supply.

Qatar: Forecasts by two economists, alongside a report by the World Bank, suggest that energy prices are likely to see a decline heading into 2025. The economists anticipate a price drop of around 7-9 percent, while the World Bank projects that increased oil production by non-OPEC countries could contribute to a 10 percent decrease in crude prices by the end of 2026. According to Qatar News Agency, several oil-producing countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to ramp up production, creating a surplus that will further pressure global crude prices. In comments to Qatar News Agency, the two economists attributed this anticipated decline to a combination of factors, including an oversupply of oil and a slowdown in economic growth in China, coupled with reduced geopolitical tensions in certain regions worldwide. Oil and gas expert Nasser Jaham Al Kuwari highlighted that current market projections point toward a sustained surplus in the oil sector in 2025, whic h is expected to exert downward pressure on prices. He forecasts Brent crude prices to average around USD 73 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at approximately USD 71 per barrel, representing a 7-9 percent drop from the previous year. Al Kuwari explained that this oversupply is fueled not only by OPEC's output but also by rising production from non-OPEC Plus countries, notably North America, Brazil, and Guyana. He also noted that China's recent adjustment to its GDP growth forecast for 2025 implies lower-than-expected demand for crude imports, further dampening global demand. Geopolitical factors, such as tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to cast a shadow on oil supply stability, although significant spare capacity remains to buffer against potential disruptions. Dr. Omar Gharaibeh, Associate Professor of Investment Risk Management at Al al-Bayt University in Jordan, underscored the complexities involved in predicting future oil price trends. He po inted out that beyond traditional supply and demand dynamics, other influences, such as fluctuating geopolitical risks and possible escalation in Middle Eastern conflicts, significantly impact the market. Dr. Gharaibeh added that escalating trade tensions and economic sanctions between Eastern and Western nations, alongside central banks' monetary policies, play a substantial role in shaping oil demand. He emphasized that OPEC Plus's responsiveness to these evolving conditions remains crucial for maintaining market stability, as all these factors contribute to a highly dynamic and uncertain landscape. Dr. Omar Gharaibeh outlined three potential scenarios for oil price trends in 2025. The first scenario, "Extreme Market Disruption," assumes a significant increase in global demand driven by heightened geopolitical risks, an expanded conflict in the Middle East, and disruptions in energy supply chains through critical straits. Such an environment, coupled with escalating trade tensions between East and West, co uld result in a severe oil supply shortage, driving prices to extraordinary levels, possibly as high as USD 130 per barrel. The second scenario, described by Dr. Gharaibeh as the "optimistic scenario," envisions oil reaching USD 90 per barrel, with a higher probability of occurrence than the first scenario. This outcome assumes a period of strong global economic growth, supported by reduced geopolitical tensions and eased trade frictions between major powers. Central banks worldwide would adopt accommodative monetary policies, which would likely weaken the US dollar, boost investor confidence, and encourage expansion and investment, increasing global demand for oil. The third scenario, which Dr. Gharaibeh considers the most realistic and probable, is the "Gradual Economic Slowdown," projecting oil prices declining to USD 50 per barrel. This forecast aligns with U.S. expectations to control global inflation rates and assumes a continuation of global economic slowdown and gradual stagnation, exacerbated by tr ade tensions and economic sanctions, particularly against China. Under this scenario, Brent crude prices would drop to around USD 50 per barrel, compelling OPEC Plus to consider production cuts to stabilize prices at USD 60-70 per barrel. Dr. Gharaibeh expects that the average oil price in 2025 will likely hover around USD 65 per barrel, reflecting a blend of these scenarios. He also foresees price volatility of approximately 30 percent, signaling significant instability and elevated risk in the global oil market. The World Bank's latest report on global commodity markets aligns with some of these projections, anticipating that oversupply will drive oil and other commodity prices to levels not seen in five years. The report attributes this oversupply partly to a "major shift" in China, where oil demand is slowing due to the rise of electric vehicle sales and decreased industrial production. Furthermore, increased oil production from non-OPEC countries is expected to compound this surplus, potentially leadin g to a 10 percent decline in raw material prices by late 2026. Despite this anticipated drop, the World Bank projects that prices will still average roughly 30 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels seen in the five years before COVID-19. Additionally, the report forecasts a 9 percent decrease in global food prices this year, followed by a further 4 percent decline in 2025.